Price Prediction Weekly & Daily Direction

Price Prediction Weekly & Daily Direction

Over the past few weeks and months, we have been diligently searching for any clue within the markets, global politics and economics as well as outlying custom indexes to try to identify any turning points in the markets accurately for our members at ActiveTradingPartners.com.  This has become a quest of sorts to try to find the hidden treasure of the clues to when the US markets may turn, correct or collapse.  We all know that markets don’t go up or down in a straight line (often).  They typically rotate within a 5~10% price range as new peaks and valleys form as price advances or declines.  At least, that was how it worked prior to President Trump and the US Fed.

 

In our continued efforts to share detailed research and analysis with our members, we submit the following very detailed and instructive market analysis using analytical tools that have rarely been seen before.  Our general position in regards to the US markets is “Meh – yea it will probably continue to move higher for at least a little while” in addition to “We would not get married to any long positions at this time because we are still very cautious of a correction or swan event”.  Keeping that in mind, lets get into the analysis.

 

We’ll start with the VIX to illustrate what our analysis models show may likely happen.  The chart below is using our custom Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) model that attempts to map and identify specific price pattern and indicator pattern setups by bar – like a Genome/DNA map.  We can then use this data to ask the ADL model what is likely to happen at any given point on a chart.  It returns the highest probability outcome for any instance or bar and reports the numbers of genomic markers that make up this analysis.

 

We can see from this chart that multiple DNA markets (price/indicator instances) are showing us that the VIX is likely to attempt to continue to hover below 10.00~10.50 over the next 20~30 days.  There are two unique ADL markers that are predicting a potential for a VIX price spike.  These would lead us to state there is a roughly 40~50% chance that the VIX could spike to well above 13 near October 12th or October 30/November 1.  These spikes appear to be somewhat short lived in the sense that they could represent some volatility in the markets near these times, but may not prompt a massive trend change.  We would need to see the VIX spike well above 17~18 and stay above these levels for a period of time to see the major trend change.

 

1

 

 

This chart, the Weekly INDU ADL analysis, shows exactly why we believe the INDU will continue higher over the next few months…  Currently, there is very limited downside risk with the genomic/DNA mapping of price data.  Almost all of our analysis is showing progressively higher price action within the next 3~6+ weeks.  As you may be able to see from this analysis, the highest probability outcome for price with the INDU is currently rotation between 22,000 and 23,000.  There is a slight possibility of prices rotating below 22,000, but the chance of this happening within the next few weeks is under 20~30%.

 

2

 

 

This Daily chart of the NQ shows part of our concern currently for the markets.  Even though the longer term analysis is telling us the markets are likely to continue to push moderately higher with a chance of some volatility and rotation, this chart is telling us a vastly different story.  This chart shows the NQ is likely to correct to levels near or below 6000 over the next few days before attempting to move a bit higher.  Additionally, there is a rather substantial (roughly nearly 40%) that the NQ could retrace below 6000 with the possibility of a move to below 5900.

 

3

 

 

This chart of Gold is also adding to our concern.  It shows the highest probable outcome from the ADL analysis is for price to stay near current lows, near $1280.00 and the potential for a move higher within the next 2~5 weeks nearing 1340~1350.  If Gold becomes more volatile over the next few weeks and does move higher, then fear will have entered the markets and the US majors will likely have corrected a bit.  If this move higher in gold does not happen, then we would expect the lower ADL projected levels to come into play.

 

4

 

 

With all this data, modeling and analysis, one can why we are so cautious about the markets. Bullish trends are currently solidly in place and mature in nature, yet certain signs of weakness are starting to appear and these have us concerned.  Any move lower on the Weekly or Monthly charts to confirm a new bearish trend would represent a 3~9% correction in the INDU – or a 650 to 2150 point decrease.

 

The analysis of the VIX ADL is showing that we have two unique opportunities this month for decent price corrections in the US markets.  One near the October 12th and the second near October 31.  At this point in time, the only rational analysis of the markets is to stay conservatively bullish overall with a cautious protective stop level.  Opportunity may be available near the 12th and/or the 31st of this month for decent sized price corrections and strategic traders may be able to position trades to take opportunity of these potential moves.

 

Until we have any clear signs that the major markets have changed direction from bullish to bearish, we’ll continue to identify upside opportunity in the markets and execute strategically long positions with moderate protective stop levels.

 

Our attempts to illustrate some of the specialized tools we use to track and map the major markets is done to show you the examples of the analysis our researchers create.  ActiveTradingPartners.com attempt to find and execute strategic trading entries each week for our clients and attempt to profit from trends, reversals and corrections.  To find out more about our specialized services, research and alerts, visit www.ActiveTradingPartners.com today.

 

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